NOAA's 2026 Hurricane Forecast Is Out: What South Florida Property Owners Should Do Before June 1

On May 21, 2026, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released the official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook. The numbers: 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger). NOAA puts the probability of a below-normal season at 55%, driven primarily by a developing El Niño that's expected to strengthen through the peak months and increase wind shear across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. Colorado State University's parallel forecast, released the same week, came in at 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes — also below the long-term averages of 14, 7, and 3.

We work emergency plumbing across Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach, and our phones every June are full of homeowners who read "below-normal forecast" in May and skipped pre-season prep. We want to be honest with you about what that forecast actually means — and exactly what we'd do in the next five days if it were our house.

What "below-normal" actually means for South Florida

El Niño years have historically produced fewer named storms because stronger upper-level winds across the Atlantic basin shred the towering cloud structures storms need to organize. NOAA's own messaging this year leans heavily on that signal. But the agency was also careful to flag two specific El Niño-year hurricanes that hit Florida hard: Hurricane Andrew in 1992, and Hurricane Idalia in 2023. Both formed in seasons that started below average. Andrew is still the costliest disaster in South Florida history. Idalia made landfall in the Big Bend but caused storm surge and flooding all the way down to Tampa Bay.

The takeaway is simple: a below-normal season cuts the total number of storms in the basin, but it does almost nothing to change the odds that one specific storm tracks toward South Florida. Hurricane prep is about the one. Plan for the one.

The 5-day pre-season checklist (May 26 to May 31)

Memorial Day weekend is the practical deadline. By the time the calendar flips to June 1, the season is open and any inspection, replacement, or part order pushes a week or more out. Here is the exact priority order we'd run if we had five days and one weekend.

1. Test the main water shutoff today

Turn the main shutoff off, listen for water to stop at every faucet, turn it back on. If the valve is stiff, leaks at the stem, or the handle wobbles, replace it before the weekend. Seized main shutoffs are the single most common reason homeowners can't stop water during a storm-related break, and the failure mode is always the same: the valve hasn't been moved in years, the stem packing has dried, and the first turn in five years is the one that fails.

2. Check the sewer backflow preventer (and add one if your home is flood-prone)

Homes below flood-risk elevation across Hollywood, Fort Lauderdale, Miami Beach, Hialeah, parts of Cooper City and Pembroke Pines, and most of the barrier islands should have a backflow preventer installed on the building sewer. If yours has one, lift the cleanout cap and confirm the flap moves freely. If yours does not, this is the year. Storm surge pushes sewer contents back through municipal lines at startling speeds, and a $400 backflow preventer is the difference between a wet floor and a sewage-soaked first level.

3. Test sump pumps, condensate pumps, and lift stations

Pour a five-gallon bucket of water into the sump pit. The pump should engage within seconds and evacuate cleanly. Condensate pumps under HVAC air handlers should run when their float is lifted manually. Any of these that hum without pumping, or run forever without lowering the water level, needs service now. Most condo buildings in the Aventura, Sunny Isles, and downtown Miami high-rise belt have lift stations that property managers can have tested on a single visit — schedule it this week.

4. Inspect the water heater (age, anode, and shutoff)

Water heaters more than 8 to 10 years old should be replaced before June, not after the first storm of the year. A unit that survives until September and then fails during a tropical storm — when nobody can get a plumber, and you might also be without power — is an avoidable disaster. While you're there, verify the cold-water shutoff above the heater actually closes, flush a few gallons through the drain valve to clear sediment, and confirm the T&P relief valve is not weeping.

5. Clear yard drains, gutters, and roof drains

Royal palm seed pods, gumbo limbo bark, and the usual mat of South Florida leaf litter clog yard drains in two weeks of inattention. Run a hose for 30 seconds into every drain on your property and watch it flow. Clear gutters end to end. On flat-roof condo buildings, this is on the property management side — confirm with your manager that roof drains and overflow scuppers have been cleared since the last inspection.

For HOA boards and property managers: three building-level items before June 1

We work with property management companies and HOA boards across South Florida, and the buildings that come through hurricane season cleanly all share the same three habits. None of them are expensive. All of them have to be done before the season opens, not after.

• Confirm the building emergency-shutoff plan in writing. Identify the building main shutoff, every riser shutoff, and the sequence to isolate a specific stack. Brief the on-site staff and post laminated copies in mechanical rooms and the manager's office.
• Establish a primary and backup plumber on a documented dispatch list. Post-storm demand spikes severely; buildings on a plumber's known-account list get prioritized over cold calls. We hold reserved slots for property-management portfolios that contact us before the season.
• Inspect the building's domestic booster pump, fire-suppression cross-connections, and roof drains. These three systems are the most common cause of post-storm building-wide outages, and all three can be tested in a single morning.

What to do during the next five days if a storm forms early

NOAA's pre-season outlook does not preclude an early storm — Atlantic season formally opens June 1, but named storms have formed in May in seven of the last ten years. If a tropical system enters the forecast cone during your prep window, compress the schedule and prioritize in this order:

1. Confirm and test the main water shutoff (you have to be able to stop water before any other prep matters).
2. Fill bathtubs and drinking-water containers — at least one gallon per person per day for three days.
3. Charge phone batteries and place a flashlight at the main shutoff location.
4. If evacuating, shut off the main water to the building. Open a low faucet briefly to drain the pressurized portion of the supply system.
5. Move outdoor items that could damage hose bibs, exterior valves, and condenser drain lines.

After the storm: when to call us

Post-storm plumbing demand across Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach spikes by an order of magnitude in the first 48 hours. We triage by severity, but everything gets handled faster when problems are reported early — not after a homeowner has spent a day hoping the stain stops growing. Call 754-707-1774 the moment you see a new ceiling stain, smell sewage that doesn't clear after running every drain for a minute, lose pressure, find a water heater that won't relight, or hear water running anywhere it shouldn't.

The 2026 forecast is what it is. Below-normal, El Niño-shaped, with the usual reminder that one storm makes the season. The plumbing prep does not change based on the forecast — it changes based on the calendar. June 1 is five days away. The list above is the one we'd run today.